Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1019 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1019 · CHS → IAD

departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1019 · CHS → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?