Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1029 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1029 · DEN → YEG

departs 11:30 AM MT · arrives 2:19 PM MDT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at YEG more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YEG?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into YEG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.733333 mi Precip0.19 in

YEG (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1029 · DEN → YEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to YEG?