Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1164 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1164 · LAX → IAD

departs 1:17 PM PT · arrives 9:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1164 · LAX → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?