Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1262 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1262 · OKC → IAH

departs 7:02 AM CT · arrives 8:39 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.1 in of rain forecast at OKC that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from OKC are usually not late

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.02 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1262 · OKC → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?