Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1286 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1286 · SFO → DTW

departs 10:36 AM PT · arrives 6:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1286 · SFO → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?