Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1371 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1371 · STL → IAH

departs 6:14 AM CT · arrives 8:37 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from STL are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.59 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1371 · STL → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?