Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1413 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1413 · MRY → DEN

departs 5:05 AM PT · arrives 8:32 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MRY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MRY (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1413 · MRY → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?