Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1479 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1479 · DEN → SDF

departs 9:45 AM MT · arrives 2:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ 9am departures from DEN are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SDF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.43 in

SDF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1479 · DEN → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?