Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1491 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1491 · MCI → ORD

departs 7:53 AM CT · arrives 9:45 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 1.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 7am departures from MCI are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip1.49 in

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1491 · MCI → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?