Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1510 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow

UA 1510 · DEN → PHL

departs 5:54 PM MT · arrives 11:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.833333 mi Precip0.19 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1510 · DEN → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?