Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1536 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow

UA 1536 · EWR → BOS

departs 3:22 PM ET · arrives 4:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1536 · EWR → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?