Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1581 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1581 · ORD → BTV

departs 7:43 AM CT · arrives 10:59 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BTV?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 433 ft, visibility down to 1.33333 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BTV that day

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.25 in

BTV (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling433 ft Visibility1.33333 mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1581 · ORD → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?