Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1599 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1599 · DEN → IAH

departs 11:34 AM MT · arrives 3:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.55 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1599 · DEN → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?