Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1764 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1764 · ORD → MCI

departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 10:10 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 267 ft, visibility down to 0 mi, 1.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.33 in

MCI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling267 ft Visibility0 mi Precip1.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1764 · ORD → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?