Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1803 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1803 · ORD → LAS

departs 11:11 AM CT · arrives 1:11 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±6 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.33 in

LAS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1803 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?