Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1826 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1826 · EWR → SAN

departs 9:41 AM ET · arrives 12:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1826 · EWR → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?