Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1830 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1830 · EWR → IAH

departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1830 · EWR → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?