Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1836 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1836 · DEN → MKE

departs 9:57 AM MT · arrives 1:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ 9am departures from DEN are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MKE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.733333 mi Precip0.24 in

MKE (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1836 · DEN → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?