Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1840 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1840 · DEN → SLC

departs 1:40 PM MT · arrives 3:13 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SLC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.43 in

SLC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1840 · DEN → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?