Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1864 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1864 · EWR → LAS

departs 11:44 AM ET · arrives 1:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from EWR are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1864 · EWR → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?