Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2021 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2021 · IAD → SJU

departs 8:34 AM ET · arrives 12:34 PM AT

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2021 · IAD → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?