Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2042 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2042 · IAH → STL

departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 2:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2.16667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.16667 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2042 · IAH → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?