Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2109 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2109 · SLC → EWR

departs 11:30 AM MT · arrives 5:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

EWR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2109 · SLC → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?