Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2182 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2182 · ORD → PHL

departs 11:33 AM CT · arrives 2:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.33 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2182 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?