Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2250 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2250 · SAT → IAD

departs 12:01 PM CT · arrives 4:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2250 · SAT → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?