Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2281 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2281 · SEA → SFO

departs 1:21 PM PT · arrives 3:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2281 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?