Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2391 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2391 · DEN → SFO

departs 7:40 AM MT · arrives 9:18 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.24 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2391 · DEN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?