Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2394 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2394 · BOS → EWR

departs 10:58 AM ET · arrives 12:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±4 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 10am departures from BOS are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.04 in

EWR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2394 · BOS → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?