Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2654 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2654 · ORD → MCO

departs 2:48 PM CT · arrives 6:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.33 in

MCO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2654 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?