Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2784 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 2784 · PHL → ORD

departs 1:31 PM ET · arrives 2:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2784 · PHL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?