Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 358 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 358 · DFW → IAD

departs 12:46 PM CT · arrives 4:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

IAD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 358 · DFW → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?