Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 363 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 363 · DEN → BWI

departs 2:13 PM MT · arrives 7:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 2pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.55 in

BWI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 363 · DEN → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?