Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 452 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 452 · DEN → SJD

departs 11:34 AM MT · arrives 1:33 PM MST

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SJD more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJD?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.24 in

SJD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 452 · DEN → SJD

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJD?