UA 456 · DEN → AUS

departs 8:00 AM MT · arrives 11:15 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at AUS that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.29 in

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 456 · DEN → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?