Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
UNITED · FLIGHT UA 486SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
UA 486 · EWR → MCO
departs 9:11 AM ET · arrives 12:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
6%chance · ±1 pts−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.