Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 497 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 497 · SLC → IAH

departs 1:00 PM MT · arrives 5:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 497 · SLC → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?