Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 500 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 500 · IND → SFO

departs 6:03 AM ET · arrives 8:02 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at IND that day

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

SFO (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 500 · IND → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?