Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 528 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 528 · ORD → DFW

departs 9:07 AM CT · arrives 11:40 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.17 in

DFW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 528 · ORD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?