UA 530 · ORD → ATL

departs 9:28 AM CT · arrives 12:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

ATL (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 530 · ORD → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?