Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 729 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 729 · ORD → PHL

departs 9:02 AM CT · arrives 12:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.36 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 729 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?