Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

BAHAMASAIR · FLIGHT UP 208 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UP 208 · FLL → NAS

departs 6:27 PM ET · arrives 7:33 PM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at NAS more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NAS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at NAS

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into NAS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

NAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UP 208 · FLL → NAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to NAS?