Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1093
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1093 · BWI → MSY
departs 6:34 PM ET · arrives 8:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.