Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1118
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1118 · BWI → PVD
departs 7:01 AM ET · arrives 8:22 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 6%
Tue 10/13 5%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 4%
Fri 10/16 4%
Sat 10/17 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PVD that day
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.