WN 1152 · BWI → SAT

departs 6:32 PM ET · arrives 8:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1152 · BWI → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?