Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1285
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1285 · COS → LAS
departs 6:31 AM MT · arrives 7:31 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 4%
Tue 10/13 2%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 2%
Fri 10/16 2%
Sat 10/17 2%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at COS that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from COS are usually not late
Weather at each end
COS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.