Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1295
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1295 · BNA → DTW
departs 12:46 PM CT · arrives 3:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
12pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DTW that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.