Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1385
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1385 · SDF → BWI
departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 5:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SDF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.