Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1399
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1399 · BUF → MCO
departs 12:46 PM ET · arrives 3:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.