Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1509 · PIT → DEN
departs 6:11 PM ET · arrives 7:21 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 33%
Wed 10/14
Sat 10/17 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.49 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.