Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1531
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1531 · TUL → DEN
departs 6:56 AM CT · arrives 7:40 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±6 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.13 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.733333 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.